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Thursday, August 27, 2015

November Options Are Low Risk Way To Play Neurocrine Biosciences' Pending Catalysts

By Jason Napodano, CFA

Phase 3 KINECT-3 Data is expected late October/early November 2015. You can buy November $45 calls for $5 per contract. You can sell October $45 calls for $3.50 per contract, resulting in a net $1.50 debit. I think NBIX's stock will go to $53-56 on positive Phase 3 data.

Please read the article on Seeking-Alpha: LINK

Monday, August 24, 2015

What To Buy Based On The Biotech Pullback

By Jason Napodano, CFA

The IBB is down 16% from its highs. That's probably not the bottom, but it does still represent a nice buying opportunity for long-term investors.

I look for stocks with at least 12 months cash, clean capital structures, credible management, near-term catalysts, and charismatic technology.

In my article I highlight some names that I either currently own or am thinking of buying based on this "bio-bear" market.

Please read the article on Seeking-Alpha: LINK

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

NephroGenex Pyridorin Could Be A Blockbuster Drug For Diabetic Nephropathy

By Jason Napodano, CFA

NephroGenex (NASDAQ:NRX) is developing pyridorin for the treatment of Diabetic Nephropathy (DN), a chronic debilitating condition that develops in patients with a combination of diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD). The company is currently conducting a Phase 3 trial with pyridorin with top-line data expected around the middle of 2016. The Phase 3 trials are being run under a special protocol assessment (SPA) with the FDA. The drug has also been granted Fast Track development status. Previously reported Phase 2 data showed a 57% treatment effect and the hurdle for success in the current Phase 3 trial is only 28% treatment effect.

For the purpose of this article, I delve into the NephroGenex story and outline why I believe the shares are vastly undervalued given the existing data and potential market opportunity for pyridorin in DN. I start with a brief overview of both DN and CKD, and then discuss pyridorin, the data generated to date, the current Phase 3 study, the market opportunity, and conclude with valuation of the stock. My target is $16 per share in the next 12-18 months.

Please read the article on Seeking-Alpha: LINK